CUP YTD
- 1.78 units (Match-Ups)
+7.21 units (Props)
+0.59 units (Outrights)
Total: +6.02 units
Been a rough couple of weeks, fortunately stopped the losing streak yesterday with the NWS race. Still basically starting over and going back to just single unit plays.
I use 4 books and can't believe how little I like this week, but here goes:
Match-Ups
1.00 unit David Reutimann (+120) over Martin Truex (@5dimes)
I know Truex has been solid here in the past and Reutimann has just been decent (15th and 19th LY) but what I like about this play is what is happening in 2009. Reutimann is having a much better year ( 8 Top 15's/5 finishes of 25th or worse/avg. overall of 16.75 compared to Truex @ 4 Top 15's/8 finishes of 25th +/avg. overall of 21.93). Reutimann has done well on the flats (8th at Phx/3rd at Pocono) and while Truex was very good in practice Saturday (4th and 1st) Reuti was not far behind (5th and 9th).
Think both are capable of good days but going with the more consistent team here.
1.00 unit David Reutimann (-140) over Brian Vickers (@5dimes)
Just not liking what I'm seeing from Vickers this weekend (32nd and 36th in practice) on a track he hasn't done well on recently (35th, 16th and 43rd last 3).
1.00 unit Mark Martin (-130) over Ryan Newman (@bodog)
Not hearing a lot about Mark but I like his chances as a darkhorse today. Hasn't raced here since '06 but has been very good on flats in '09 (5th at Richmond/1st at Phx). Was 5th in Happy Hour yesterday.
1.00 unit Jeff Gordon (-105) over Kyle Busch (thegreek)
Think Gordon will do well, maybe Top 5, but this is more of a play against Busch. Only so-so in practice, has been down lately (only 1 Top 10 in 6 races) and even though he had a win here in 2006 not a lot of success otherwise (22.4 avg the last 5)
1.00 unit Kurt Busch (-125) over Kyle Busch (@thegreek)
For similar reasons stated above plus a gut feel on Kurt today (that could easily blow up in my face)
Props
1.00 unit David Reutimann (-140) under 15.5 (@sportsbook)
1.00 unit Kevin Harvick (-130) over 8.5 (@sportsbook)
Kevin does well here and has been fast but not sure if all the parts are together yet
1.00 unit Juan Pablo Montoya (-135) under 16.5 (@sportsbook)
Watch out for JPM, should be Top 10 and if things click maybe a lot better
Outrights
0.75 units Jimmie Johnson (+525) @5dimes
Looks like a clear favorite
0.50 unit Tony Stewart (+800) @5dimes
Wasn't real fast in practice but should be a threat come race time
0.33 unit Mark Martin (+1400) @thegreek
Has been very good on flat racetracks this year
0.10 unit Juan Pablo Montoya (+5000) @bodog
0.10 unit David Reutimann (+4000) @bodog
Two longshots that are worth a very long look
Good luck to everyone!
- 1.78 units (Match-Ups)
+7.21 units (Props)
+0.59 units (Outrights)
Total: +6.02 units
Been a rough couple of weeks, fortunately stopped the losing streak yesterday with the NWS race. Still basically starting over and going back to just single unit plays.
I use 4 books and can't believe how little I like this week, but here goes:
Match-Ups
1.00 unit David Reutimann (+120) over Martin Truex (@5dimes)
I know Truex has been solid here in the past and Reutimann has just been decent (15th and 19th LY) but what I like about this play is what is happening in 2009. Reutimann is having a much better year ( 8 Top 15's/5 finishes of 25th or worse/avg. overall of 16.75 compared to Truex @ 4 Top 15's/8 finishes of 25th +/avg. overall of 21.93). Reutimann has done well on the flats (8th at Phx/3rd at Pocono) and while Truex was very good in practice Saturday (4th and 1st) Reuti was not far behind (5th and 9th).
Think both are capable of good days but going with the more consistent team here.
1.00 unit David Reutimann (-140) over Brian Vickers (@5dimes)
Just not liking what I'm seeing from Vickers this weekend (32nd and 36th in practice) on a track he hasn't done well on recently (35th, 16th and 43rd last 3).
1.00 unit Mark Martin (-130) over Ryan Newman (@bodog)
Not hearing a lot about Mark but I like his chances as a darkhorse today. Hasn't raced here since '06 but has been very good on flats in '09 (5th at Richmond/1st at Phx). Was 5th in Happy Hour yesterday.
1.00 unit Jeff Gordon (-105) over Kyle Busch (thegreek)
Think Gordon will do well, maybe Top 5, but this is more of a play against Busch. Only so-so in practice, has been down lately (only 1 Top 10 in 6 races) and even though he had a win here in 2006 not a lot of success otherwise (22.4 avg the last 5)
1.00 unit Kurt Busch (-125) over Kyle Busch (@thegreek)
For similar reasons stated above plus a gut feel on Kurt today (that could easily blow up in my face)
Props
1.00 unit David Reutimann (-140) under 15.5 (@sportsbook)
1.00 unit Kevin Harvick (-130) over 8.5 (@sportsbook)
Kevin does well here and has been fast but not sure if all the parts are together yet
1.00 unit Juan Pablo Montoya (-135) under 16.5 (@sportsbook)
Watch out for JPM, should be Top 10 and if things click maybe a lot better
Outrights
0.75 units Jimmie Johnson (+525) @5dimes
Looks like a clear favorite
0.50 unit Tony Stewart (+800) @5dimes
Wasn't real fast in practice but should be a threat come race time
0.33 unit Mark Martin (+1400) @thegreek
Has been very good on flat racetracks this year
0.10 unit Juan Pablo Montoya (+5000) @bodog
0.10 unit David Reutimann (+4000) @bodog
Two longshots that are worth a very long look
Good luck to everyone!
